Grainne Gilmore
Over 900 restaurants nationwide. Find your nearest now
Inflation tumbled at a record pace in October to 4.5 per cent, down from the 16-year peak of 5.2 per cent in September, official figures show.
A sharp fall in transport costs, coupled with lower fuel and food prices, helped to push down the Consumer Price Index to the lowest rate since July.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also fell from 2.2 per cent to 1.9 per cent, indicating that retailers are cutting prices in a bid to attract consumers into the shops as the British economy head towards recession.
The bigger-than-expected fall in inflation helps to explain the Bank of England's dramatic 1.5 per cent rate cut earlier this month as, until now, the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has been concerned about entrenching inflation in the economy if it cuts rates too swiftly.
Analysts say that the figure paves the way for more rate cuts.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said: "This reinforces the belief that the Bank of England will cut interest rates sharply further in December as it tries to limit the length and depth of the recession."
The Bank expects inflation to fall sharply towards its 2 per cent target, and forecasts that it could drop below this level to as low as 1 per cent next year.
Mr Archer forecasts that it will fall to 0.5 per cent, while Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said that deflation could be in the cards as inflation dips below zero.
"Not only is inflation in the UK still dead but deflation is about to be reborn," he said.
Falling inflation and deflation can be damaging for an economy as consumers are tempted to wait before making purchases to let prices fall further.
This hits retailers and producers, causing sales and output to drop and can lead to further cost cutting and job cuts. Just as an inflationary spiral is damaging, a deflationary spiral can also be toxic for the economy.
Brendan Barber, General Secretary of the TUC, said that while it was good news that inflation was falling, the drop in prices is "a sign of how rapidly the economy is shrinking." He called on the Government to do more to get banks lending again, giving warning that a failure to do so would mean that further rate cuts would do nothing to help save jobs and businesses.
Retail price inflation, on which many wage deals are based, fell to 4.2 per cent from 5.0 per cent in September.
The monthly drop in the inflation rate is the biggest since the series began in 1997.
The moment your toes touch the sand and your gaze meets water, you know you’re in the Bahamas.
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2005 / 55
£59,500
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £60,000
The Army Benevolent Fund
London
£28k+ Basic + Commission
Drummond Selection
London
12-15 days a year, c £12K
Springboard
London
£Competitive
American Airlines
Heathrow, London
Great Investment, River Views
One and Two Bed Apartments
Wandsworth Town
Times Online Property Search will help you Find It
like nothing on Earth!
.
Must end 28 Feb 2009!
Save up to 25%
Amazing Far East Offers
Visit Malaysia from £755pp
Great travel insurance deals online
.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
4.5% is not exactly low is it ?
Ivan, Newcastle,
Inflation falling lol, so why are gas and electricity prices at record highs?
Paul, Coventry,
Silly me! I've just realised why all these frenetic attempts to avert deflation. It's simple. It improves the standard of living of the consumer and it's very difficult to tax.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
Oh! So prices are still increasing monthly but not so fast. Great! So much enthusiasm for rate-cuts. I'm afraid the savers are not so enthusiastic. Deflation is coming? I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, inflation is falling but not to zero, yet!! Will it get there? Never mind, cut rates now!
Richard, Alicante, Spain
"A sharp fall in transport costs...."
Banks have stopped issuing letters of credit. Nothing is being shipped. Sterling is down 25%. These are already the seeds of the faster inflation that is to follow.
Tim, Sanya, China
I look forward to deflation; it will mean 0% BoE rate (it can't be negative, can it), 0% savings rate (likewise) and we will not pay a penny on income tax on our savings whilst their real value grows. Would the govt allow that? Poor to become richer? No chance.
Mich, Portsmouth,
The fact is Fred, inflation is not lower, its the government cooking the books and as for deflation forget it, its deleveraging thats what is causing so called asset deflation not deflation itself.
Inflation (the creation of money) is going through the roof, hyperinflation by end of 2010
Steve, Hatfield, UK
My electric company is considering cutting the price in 2009. Their fat cat bosses will be raking it in charging exorbitantly high prices all this winter when people use more energy.
How can inflation be lower when my bills are still ridiculously high?
Fred, Moray, Scotland
More fiscal mismanagement from the government. Who are they blaming now?
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Although it leads to reduced interest rates, low inflation is not pure good news for the highly indebted millions, as it means that their REAL debt is decreasing more slowly.
S. Smith , London,
So let cut the interest to zero and destroy all savings .Is that what your paper wants? to destroy the people who have been saving for a rainny day? I used to think that you were a responsible paper I dont think this any more because I cannot see the logic inlowering rates to zero.
Nicholas , Larnaca, CYPRUS
At 4.5% that is double the B of E target of 2%. Surely the Governor MUST write another letter to the chancellor about how to stop inflation? Drop interest rates!! This puts up prices of imports, practically everyrthing we consume= MORE inflation
Gordons give away pre election spree is on the way!
Steve, Wimborne, U K
Should we worry about deflation?
Analysis
By Evan Davis
BBC economics editor
Economists and politicians in industrialised countries around the world are united in worrying about deflation. But is it a bogeyman or a real danger?
Printed on the 3/6/2003. I wonder what happened next?
Alex, Salisbury, United Kingdom
The point that inflation is not rising "as fast" is important.
If inflation looks to have dropped 'back' to 2% doesn't mean everything is ok again.
Unless the underlying supply of income into the system (your pay) matches the current inflation - you'll still be behind by a long way.
George, London, England
no doubt the vile Bruin will take the credit just as he would not take the blame, the slow down in inflation has nothing to do with him for the same reasons that he denied all blame for the rise neither we nor he can have it both ways
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
@david dredge, norfolk,
Well said. Prices have risen and will not drop. They are here to stay. Only when inflation drops and wages rise higher than inflation, will we feel the pound in our pocket.
Thankfully, I got all my luxury imported goods just recently - TV, stereo etc.
Darren Ward, Manchester, UK
What the BOE report falls to spell out is that prices stayed flat between September 2008 and October 2008 meaning that on balance everything became more affordable for consumers. They need desperately to change the format of their report to present monthly changes.
Michael, London,
The headline should read "Inflation continues to soar above target even though oil price has plummeted by 50%". I agree with rogerb and others that there is no evidence that inflation will even reach its target let alone us enter a period of deflation. Interest rates are too low and damaging.
Alex, Salisbury, United Kingdom
Rich Worcester. You weren't calling for rate rises when your houses were rising at a hugely inflationary rate so you can't complain when they are falling back to normality ( unless you where so stupid to remortgage to get your hands on money to spend on things you can't afford)
Edward, London,
And how on earth can Howard Archer say "Not only is inflation in the UK still dead but deflation is about to be reborn" when inflation is 4.5%? The mind boggles!
Alex, Salisbury, United Kingdom
"Tell me again what months inflation figures are our old age pensions increased by next April?
It wouldn't be October would it."
No Adrian, it'sSetember thank goodness!
John, Sussex,
Rich, worcester,
And were you complaining when inflation was about +20% for the previous 3-4 years as house prices rocketed?
Alex, Salisbury, United Kingdom
Inflation is about -20%. Peoples house prices outway the price of a baked bean or 10p at the petrol pump.
Bank of England is about 14 months to late.
Nice one.
Rich, worcester,
Headline inflation falling will not effect the high street bank lending rates to business and personal which are still at usurious levels. Until the Bank of England step in and place a cap on the spread between LIBOR and the borrowing rate offered to consumers RIPOFF Britain will continue.
Will, Lincoln, UK
A falling inflation rate does NOT mean prices are falling. It just means they are not RISING so fast.
david dredge, norfolk,
On the basis that Mr Jones's fixed rate is about to end soon, I think we as a country should rally around and support his request for 0.1% interest rates. I'm on a base tracker so I'm not partisan at all, really.
Matt S, London, England
Surprise surprise
Tell me again what months inflation figures are our old age pensions increased by next April?
It wouldn't be October would it.
Adrian John Bell, Cardiff, u.k
Inflation is still way above its target range of between + or - 1% around 2%.
RPIX inflation is 4.8% way in excess of its 2.5% target.
If inflation were to run under the 2% cpi target for a while it would only help to balance out the recent 3% above target increase.
Jim, Belfast, Northern Ireland
The cost of Oil drops by 50% and inflation only drops from 5.2% to 4.5%. And they expect me to believe that inflation is going to drop to less than 2% and possibly negative. Sorry I think NOT
Keith Sloan, Nr Winchester, UK
Does anyone believe that opec will let oil go much lower?
Does anyone believe that when things turn food and oil won't rise again due to structural imbalances?
Does anyone believe that the pound fall won't raise imported goods?
If you do then deflation is possible and you might be daft
rogerb, bridport, uk
I agree with the previous comment from Liverpool. It is one of the few times in financial history when the path of inflation and economy are so clear and globally linked that they should just cut the base rate to the appropriate level now rather than stepwise cuts. It brings more certainty.
mac, Manchester, UK
just drop intrest raets to 0.1% and be done with it, if that does not get things moving again nothing will. That and my fixed rate rusn out soon so i need a good deal.
MR Jones, Liverpool, England