Dan Sabbagh
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Sony's victory in the high-definition format war is a badly needed win for the Japanese electronics giant, after a series of humiliating failures that have left control of the music market with Apple. The question that Sony has yet to answer, however, is whether the price paid to see off Toshiba - at least $3 billion (£1.54 billion) - was worth it.
Blu-ray is more expensive to manufacture than Toshiba's HD-DVD player. Toshiba players are on sale for as little as £149.99 this year, £120 less than the cheapest Blu-ray. Although some of that discounting reflected a last throw of the dice from Toshiba, for the moment consumers have been saddled with a more expensive format and Sony's losses to make up.
The only way for Sony to distribute Blu-ray in large quantities was to build the technology into the PlayStation 3 and sell the games console at a discount. Sony's console division ran up a $1.97 billion deficit in the year to March 31 last year, which it followed with a $991 million loss in the first three quarters of the current year. Yet the true costs of Blu-ray are probably much greater: early research and development expenses have not been included.
Analysts believe, however, that Sony will recoup its $3billion-plus investment eventually. Richard Hooper, an analyst with Screen Digest, said: “It is hard to estimate precisely what royalties Sony will generate, but we believe that they will be able to recoup far more than $3 billion over the lifetime of Blu-ray. It's worth it.”
Without PlayStation 3, Sony would would have been in deep trouble. In Europe, for example, Sony has sold up to an estimated three million consoles. Toshiba is similarly coy with its figures, but has admitted that it has sold “over 200,000”.
David Walstra, a Sony Blu-ray specialist, said: “Blu-ray films have been outselling HD-DVD by roughly two to one in the United States, but by three or even four to one in Europe.” It was becoming increasingly clear to Hollywood that Blu-ray's customer base - with 9.5million PlayStation 3s expected to be sold in the year to March 31 - was going to be far greater than HD-DVD could manage. Warner Brothers took the first step, abandoning Toshiba in January.
Incorporating Blu-ray into the games console, however, was not the only reason that Sony succeded. It was also able to keep enough Hollywood studios on board, with Walt Disney, Twentieth Century Fox and Warner Brothers all backing the format.
Blu-ray's superior capacity - it will be able store 50GB when it introduces “dual-layer” technology, compared with Toshiba's 30GB - was also important. Anthony Peet, general manager of Disney's DVD business in Britain, said that the storage meant “we can include more bonus features and ship less discs”.
Both Sony and its consumers still have to pay a price. For the company, it comes from building the expensive technology into a games console, which Sony executives concede is being sold at a loss. Nintendo has seized market share with its cheaper Wii, while Microsoft's XBox360 is also performing competitively. Where Sony dominated the second generation console markets, outselling Microsoft's Xbox by five to one, its present share globally is estimated at 20.8 per cent.
For customers, unlike those of Toshiba's HD-DVD, which was fully developed, Sony left some features out as it raced to get the product to market; in particular, the ability to incorporate internet downloads into the discs.
“Only the PlayStation 3 is future- proofed; it is not clear what will happen to other players which do not have ethernet [fast internet] connections,” Mr Hooper said.
That means that people who have bought a standalone Blu-ray player may have to buy new equipment if they want to take advantage of new features, making them, like HD-DVD owners, casualties of the high-definition format war.
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And there is silly old me thinking that any kind of monopoly was wrong!
Frederick, London, UK
Sony won this one because they learned their lessons from their Betamax days. They learned that just because something is better (betamax actually was better than VHS... but lost out because Sony wouldn't license it out to anyone else - other little known fact: Sony invented BOTH Betamax & VHS, but wanted to only invest in the better system {Betamax}, so they sold ALL the rights and technology to JVC). If there are more other companies offering a "more-or-less similar" product, they will have cost competativeness... and they will be more attractive to those buyers that don't have unlimited budgets.
Richard, Eastern Tennessee,
It is unfair to include the total PS3 losses from selling at below cost as solely to blu ray inclusion.
New Consoles have traditionally been launched at below cost to grow the inital user base, they then recoup these losses from the revenue they receive from game sales (both inhouse, and the per game fee they receive from 3rd party game studios). And also the cost of produving the PS3 is likely to be much less now than upon launch.
So the PS3 losses are already being subsidised by both games and bluray sales.
one last point - BluRay may have won the HD disc format war, but will eventually lose the HD distribution battle to digital downloading (which apple & microsoft has already launched). The only question is how fast this will happen. 3, 5 or 10 years.
Maybe consumers will jump staight from DVD to digital downloading. the range of titles on Bluray will never compete with the variety able to be downloaded, and you arent going to buy a single tv episode on bluray are you?
kirk, Wellington, New Zealand
Sony "won" because it incorporates draconian copy protection into Blu-Ray.
The support of film studios had nothing to do with technical superiority and everything to do with the level of control BluRay gives them over what you watch.
I wont be surprised if in a years time you can only play a film on one player, if you ask it very nicely, maybe one address.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
HD-DVD is to Blu Ray as Hillary Clinton is to Obama.
Obamaray wins.
Lexington, New York, NY
While it is true that PS3 is a loss leader, you fail to estimate which fraction of that loss is due to Blu-ray and which to the Cell processor.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Sony should have future - proofed their players like they did with PS3 from the start. They will alienate and insult their current supporters. They will need to make some kind of amense like Apple did with the iPhone for early adopters. But do they care? I will wait until summer for the new profile players. I don't have anymore room in the garage to store an obsolete Blu-ray player along side my betamax, VHS VCR, laserdisc player, cassette deck, CD player, DAT player and soon my DVD player.
Stephen, Long Beach, CA