Predictions of 20,000 jobs set to go in the City of London over the next two years and dire warnings about one third of estate agents in the regions disappearing may make aspirant lawyers dread what the next year or two holds in store.

But they should not despair. According to David Davies, careers consultant at BPP law school, the signs of credit-crunch impact in the law are encouraging so far. The collective memory of law firms recalls that their knee-jerk reactions to economic downturn earlier this decade and, even more so, in the 1990s were mistaken. Then they either cut back significantly the number of trainees they recruited or encouraged them to postpone their arrival by six months or a year. The result was that when the economic cycle turned they were short of young qualified staff and had to enter the expensive game of lateral hires. “Many firms took years to recover from that error and they don’t plan to repeat it,” added a College of Law careers adviser.

As a result, at least within the leading recruiters, there are no plans to reduce the numbers of trainees by comparison with last year. “Our targets are between 130 and 140 as they were for last year,” a Linklaters spokesperson said. At Addleshaw Goddard, it is staying at a steady 50 a year, while at Norton Rose the story is the same. “We’re talking about 55 trainees this year, consistent with last year,” Sam Eastwood, of the firm, said.

“Frankly, we are wary of turning off the tap. We have learnt from experience that in the long term it is best to grow your own and get to know them really well. Otherwise you recruit later when they are one or two years’ qualified and you have to make a guess based on a relatively short interview.” Meanwhile, at Eversheds, the target is actually going up slightly this year on its normal target of 80 a year. With a big office just about to open in London the firm is on an expansive curve.

The point to remember, of course, is that law firms recruit now for people who will not actually join them until two or even three years hence. And with any luck the economy will have righted itself again by then. But amid all this upbeat reporting, there is a complication. As Eastwood explained, a significant number of those 55 joining Norton Rose will now be Chinese, Russians or from elsewhere in the world. “In many cases the non-British applicants are more highly motivated and competitive. They are focused on what a terrific opportunity this is to join a City law firm.”

So while the number of opportunities may be the same, the competition for an offer may be become increasingly tight as native applicants are outgunned in drive and determination by non-British applicants. Moreover, the traditional mould has been well and truly broken as the majority of new entrants (typically up to 55 per cent these days) are women with better examination results and more committed academic credentials than young men.

So while at one level there is “no change” in the market, underneath everything is shifting. This can be seen just as much on the high street among law firms serving private clients. While these firms tend to recruit far, far fewer trainees — and often later in the student’s career — the general feeling among careers advisers is that, again, the numbers will hold up.

But there is a great unknown quanity, according to Melissa Hardee, of City Law School, in the shape of the the Legal Services Act 2007. That will impact mightily on this generation, the first in the new era to observe partnerships with non-lawyers, increasingly porous frontiers between barristers and solicitors as advocates, and the possibility of external investment into law firms.

Curiously, it may well be the barristers who feel the impact of this most. Significant change is already afoot as well-paid pupillages are offered to a minority of elite performers by the most successful Chancery sets. The consequence of this is that the crude number of pupillages is coming down as resources are focused on a small minority at the top. Meanwhile, barristers who want to get into crime and family law see a very different picture as the opportunity for traditional pupillages shrinks in the face of public funding cuts and the shift by the Crown Prosecution Service to train and retain its own advocates. So although the number of students pouring out of Bar Vocational Courses grows, scope for practise may be shrinking.

Clearly it is a mixed picture with both light and shade. But remember, we are heading towards the end of an epoch. What lies ahead is anyone’s guess.

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