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There is an old principle that you shouldn't hire someone you can't fire. That is why Barack Obama would make a huge mistake if he were to pick Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State.
It's not that the choice would be terrible for US foreign policy. She would surely do an excellent job - thorough, detailed, tenacious - as she has in her eight years as senator for New York. But it would hand the rebuilding of America's worldwide reputation - one of the defining themes of Mr Obama's campaign and presidency - to someone who has her own strong views. Not disastrous views, at all, from what we know. But different from his; sometimes subtly, sometimes sharply, and very definitely hers.
It has taken two weeks since Mr Obama's victory for the Hillary problem to boil to the surface. In that time Democratic Washington has slid from euphoria into hyperanxiety, as people jostle for the 8,000 administration jobs (and that's before counting the Democratic jobs on Capitol Hill). The Washington Post, which devotes a couple of pages a day to speculation on who's up and who's down, noted on Thursday, under the headline “Grab a Chair”, that a huge reshuffle of Senate committee chairmanships looked like leaving Mrs Clinton with nothing. “Nada? Zip?” it asked, despite her seniority and the efforts she made (eventually) to help Mr Obama to defeat John McCain.
In the past five days, she has shot to the top of the list for Mr Obama's foreign policy supremo, rivalling Senator John Kerry, the failed 2004 presidential candidate, and Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and primary contender. Better in the tent than out, seems to be the Obama team's thinking.
Up to a point. Yes, she could do some damage if spurned. When Mr Obama talks about bipartisanship, that means not just reaching over to Republicans but to Democrats alienated by the bitter primaries. Those include women of Mrs Clinton's generation, and her assertive brand of feminism, who felt that her race meant their time had come.
Even more important may be the white working-class voters who backed her. To the end, Mr Obama never won their support. But to survive the ferocious battles of this recession, he will need all Democrats in Congress on his side. He may have to reach over their heads, too, and call on popular support for tough measures in tough times. He will need those who wanted Mrs Clinton.
It is true, too, that she knows a lot about foreign policy. Her worst campaign mistake trail was to claim that she had arrived in Bosnia under gunfire (and not to realise that footage of the cheerful welcoming committee inevitably existed). But to give her credit, she has pitched up in a lot of troublespots.
I saw her at her best in the Senate Armed Services Committee two years ago. The senators, grilling General John Abizaid, then head of Central Command, about Iraq, struggled to stick to their allotted six minutes, and to pose questions, not make speeches. Mr McCain was the worst, jabbing at the ceiling and breaking into a shout at unseen enemies, a disturbing spectacle in the quiet room. Not Mrs Clinton. She took the general to task for all but contradicting himself in his desire to assent to every option. You'd be delighted to have her as a lawyer.
So she would do the US proud as Secretary of State. But she wouldn't help Mr Obama as president. She wouldn't flatter him; she wouldn't really defer to him; she might challenge him, even though she couldn't actually upstage him.
The rapturous reception that Mr Obama has received in much of the world is based on his promise of change. He says that he is the face of a new America; does he really want to be represented by one of the most familiar faces of the past? Or by anyone who will compete with him (and eclipse Joe Biden, the Vice-President and a foreign affairs specialist)? Foreign policy these days is an intimate affair, carried out between leaders, on the phone, or in faux-friendly fishing trips. The Secretary of State role has become more technical, less independent. Ask Condoleezza Rice. Or David Miliband.
Would Mrs Clinton be happy to play that role? Surely not. It is inevitable that she would disagree with Mr Obama, on substance as well as style. After all (as he endlessly reminded voters), she backed Iraq at the start, where he opposed it. She will have her own views on the decisions of her husband's presidency (the Middle East, Balkans, North Korea), many well judged, but messy in their legacy. Come to that, Bill will have even stronger views.
On that note, her husband's complicated hinterland could bring its own problems. Mr Obama's team is now said to be asking about conflicts of interest that his connections might now cause her. If they exist, wouldn't they have also been a problem for her as president? Sure, but he might have more incentive to simplify them brutally if she were in the White House, than if she were merely Secretary of State.
Mr Obama can't really afford to offer Hillary the prize of Secretary of State. Yet for her (and her husband), it is a long way short of the prize she so recently thought she would get. She will resent Mr Obama. And he won't be able to get rid of her.
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No one is indispensable or unsackable, Obama & Hilary Clinton included.
ian cheese, london, uk
Obama and Clinton had similar policies so I dont think there would be any arguing of his policies in the senate by Clinton. She was over qualified to be president so would definitely ace secretary of state.
Khadijat E., Birmingham ,
Very incomprehensible choice after that story she told during the Primairies - to prove her experience in foreign diplomacy - that she visited Serajewo "under a hail of bullets" (proved to be quite untrue) ! Surely not much of a credential for a future U.S Secretary of State ?
Hans Boonen (France), Narbonne , France
Shaun, Maryland--How can Hillary run for president in 2012? As a republican candidate?
Niall, Dub lin, Ireland
Rice independent? if she ever had an original thought in her life it certainly wasn't in Bush service. He just thew the sticks and the poodle went to fetch them back, must have a carbon footprint the size of Texas
At least HC has the experience for the job which is what counts
bill, ely,
I think Mr. Obama only wants to keep her under his thumb. I don't think he wants to leave a powerful opponent like Mrs. Clinton in the US Senate, where she can argue against his policies all she wants and set up a potential run for the White House in 2012.
Shaun, Maryland, USA
It will soon become apparent that the same team would have been chosen whichever Democrat won the nomination. Even 'radical' McGovern in the 70s would have appointed an establishment team and settled down to patrician inactivity.
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
This is a big disappointment I wanted Barack Obama to win because of change, this appointment is not change, she is old school. As they say 'never trust a politician' .
stanley peters, Bournemouth, UK
There will be a clash of charisma and Clinton may leave halfway through.
James, kuching, Malaysia
Make her US Ambasador to the UN. Keep the Secretary of State position for Bill Richardson. As someone said, does Obama have the guts to do this? The answer is probably "yes"--I hope so anyway.
Davidicus, Portland, Oregon, USA
Does Obama have the guts not to employ Hillary?
Those Clintons, oh boy, they won't let go, will they?
Hanja, Rome,
It's true that Hillary is not a fresh face but the change that the world wants is primarily a change away from Bush Cheney Rumsfeld and the Neocons. She is bright and experienced, not totally honest (Bosnia!), but would do the job well, and she's sensible enough not to let her ego push too far.
ruskee, London,
i disagree with this analysis. she has too much experience and influence not to include her somewhere in the administration. if she's left out then she will be a threat that he has no direct influence to contain. the key question is what role in the administration is best. none bigger than SoS...
stephen, china, china
Savo- Don't make an ill educated remark. Mrs Clinton has more political experience than President Elect Obama. They would make a great team as was witnessed during Sen. Obamas' campaign. Its Dem. vs Dem. 'til the nomination then its all for one one for all time.
Leila, Orlando, USA
If Obama wants two first ladies in the House then appoint Clinton as Secretary of State. Hilary and Bill need to go back to Arkansas and let Obama get down to business. Bill brings too much baggage and too many conflicts of interest into the picture. They would be a constant distraction.
John, Durham, USA
How about American ambassador to Somalia, that should keep her occupied for at least a couple of centuries.
ljs, edinburgh, scotland
I believe that you underestimate Barack Obama. Just as he would have the courage to hire her, should he wish to, he would have the courage to fire her, should the need arise. He would never hire her if he didn't believe that she would do the job well. We will have to wait and see.
Marc, Paris, France
Make her Secretary of the Treasury : her name can then appear on dollar bills(remember Ivy Baker Priest?) and everyone's ego
is satisfied.
Jim Barnes, Pasadena CA, USA
I would not trust the Clinton's to stay in line. Bill is always there on tiller steering their boat. They are so miffed off at not winning the candidacy it can never be repaired. Colin Powell would be a much better choice or even Ms Rice.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
Fascinating dilemma to raise, more finely balanced than the conclusion implies. Iraq apart (and that's mostly history now), how much substantive difference is there between Obama and Clinton on foreign policy? Safe pair of hands plus "in the tent" swing it her way.
Jamie Stevenson, London, UK
I don't buy it.
You say that she would not be happy as Secretary, but according to all the news, her camp is saying that she would be, and IF Bill's donors list can be straightened out, she'd be offered the job. She would not go rogue, she's a pragmatist and can be a team player. Primaries are over
VV, Fairfax, USA
The time-honored expression "America cares about America"
In your own words Hillary Clinton would be an excellent Secretary of State for America. That's all that needs to be said - besides Obama needs the Clintonites more than they do him.
Jim Talbot, Auckland, New Zealand
If she is qualified for some serious post in the administration, so should be some other women who were active in the Oval Office.
savo, london, uk
An analysis worth considering. However, a totally new thinking process is necessary if America is to win over the many countires who disagree with the interventionist strategies of America. The problem for Secretary of State will be to control the wish of the American Arms Industry to sell weapons.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia