I first realised it when I saw the pictures of Alastair Campbell. The great
Alastair Campbell. The man who used to decide who in the political
playground everyone should pick on. One of the truly brilliant operators of
the past 30 years, the man who worked the inside to win three general
elections. And there he was, reduced to standing on the steps of Labour's
conference centre handing out stickers calling for unity.
Handing out stickers, as if he was secretary of Yeovil Young Socialists. With
John Prescott for goodness sake. And Glenys Kinnock. Not even Neil Kinnock.
I understood it then. All those people who think that Tony Blair is sitting in
an airport lounge somewhere, tanned, rested, laughing at Gordon Brown's
troubles, are wrong. For Tony Blair this isn't a comedy, it's a tragedy. Or
as David Miliband might put it - for Tony Blair a tragedy this is.
For what we are witnessing here in Manchester is not the beginning of the end
of Gordon Brown. It is the beginning of the end of new Labour.
The reason I write this is because the moment new Labour has arrived at is a
moment I recognise.
Almost exactly ten years ago, when I was working at Conservative Central
Office, my colleague Andrew Cooper and I produced a document entitled
Kitchen Table Conservatives. Born out of frustration with the failure of the
Tory party to grasp the meaning of its defeat in 1997, the paper was a call,
perhaps the first, for the party to modernise.
It started with a simple proposition - it wasn't enough for the party to
understand that voters had lost faith in us. We had to do something far
harder. We had to accept deep within us that this loss of faith was
justified. “Recovery,” we argued, “cannot begin until we understand that a
lot of things people said about us before the election were true. That is
why the perceptions have been hard to shift. We were out touch. We had
stopped listening. We were undisciplined and divided. We didn't have any
clear idea of the direction in which we wanted to take Britain.” The context
of politics had changed utterly, “but we carried on regardless”. And voters
would not turn to the Tories again until they could see that at last we had
got their message.
Listening to the speeches and talking to Labour politicians at the conference
I can see that they have reached a very similar stage. They have a hazy
grasp of what the voters think about them. But they think the voters are
wrong.
Perhaps I can help them. The voters are not wrong. And thinking, even
secretly, that they are wrong never, ever, ever, ever works. It never works.
It never works.
Let's start with this. It is not the economy, stupid. In 1992 James Carville,
Bill Clinton's campaign guru, put up a sign in his campaign HQ. It was
intended to focus Clinton's staff on the key issue. It read: “It's the
economy, stupid.” This has become a golden rule in politics. Many
politicians are economic determinists believing that political fortunes
invariably follow economic ones.
Yet what was true in 1992 in America is not always true. I remember watching
Michael Heseltine explain in 1997 why the Conservatives would win the
election because Britain was booming. It turned out that instead Britain was
booing. Labour needs to understand that Carville's sign is not true here and
now.
Labour did not become unpopular because of the economic crisis. Simple polling
will show you that I am right. A big majority of swing voters say that they
do not believe Britain's economic troubles are the fault of Gordon Brown.
And Labour's difficulties began long before those of the economy.
So if it isn't the economy, what is it? Ten years ago in our kitchen table
Conservative paper, written at a moment when Tony Blair was more than 15
points ahead in the polls, Andrew and I thought we could see three failings
that might eventually make Labour unpopular.
The first was that Labour was spending a great deal of money on public
services without reforming them. At the time this was shrewd - the public
didn't want market reforms and they did want more spent. There was, however,
a small problem: spending more without proper reform would not work. The
improvements would not live up to voters expectations. And they would become
angry. They wouldn't blame themselves for this failure - remembering their
resistance to reform - they would blame Labour. And there would be a change
in mood. Fury at Labour, greater acceptance of reform and a change in
attitude toward government spending.
The second failing was that Labour believed “there is a political solution to
every problem”. They couldn't see a social issue without intervening. This
made good headlines in the short term, but in the long term would stoke an
anti-politician feeling. People would believe new Labour had betrayed them
and had turned out to be just another bunch of politicians.
And finally there was this: “When people begin to feel really let down by the
Labour Government, it is likely that the one thing they will most loathe is
the slick over-packaging.”
I think this decade-old analysis is a pretty good summary of where new Labour
now is. The reason why I point out that we came up with it years ago is not
to make us sound clever. It is to fortify my argument that the Government's
current difficulties are not a passing economic phase, and that a speech of
his life or a photocall with a banana, or even two bananas, will not save
them. The problem lies deep, deep in the history of new Labour. And it will
not go away until voters think Labour has changed fundamentally.
If you doubt this, consider what happened last summer. When Gordon Brown
became Prime Minister there was a brief period in which voters accepted that
perhaps he represented change. Labour's popularity soared. Then it dawned on
the electorate that Brown was not change and their popularity plummeted.
So to win again, Labour has to change. And to change it has to accept that
voters criticism of their failings - on public services, on spin, on all
their tiny micro-interventions - are not only a fact of political life but
fair and reasonable.
And that is why the national mood is so threatening for new Labour. That is
why Tony Blair is not laughing. For new Labour politicians the change is
hard: they have to be self-critical, abandon favourite clap lines, accept
attacks they have previously regarded as insufferable.
Meanwhile, it is the Left that looks tanned, rested and sitting there
laughing. Because for them, you see, accepting new Labour's mistakes is
easy.
daniel.finkelstein@thetimes.co.uk
The record of New Labour and Gordon Brown?: huge investments in education and health (with some return), stealthy redistribution of wealth to slightly right 17 years of reverse Robin Hood-ism. Against this; too much cowtowing to the shibboleths of the free market, ie. too much like HM's opposition.
Alan, Valencia, Spain
I've left for a better-run country and I'll come home after the revolution.
I can't stand what's happening to the UK. There's nothing I can do. I get depressed every time I visit. Yes, I've given up.
Kate, Vienna,
It's more simple than that. In a 2-party state the government has one-to-three terms in control. When the elastic's stretched to four terms, as happened under Thatcher and Major, it snaps altogether. History is just repeating itself. Labour has had its 3 terms. Now it's time for the Tories again.
K Philips, London, UK
The economic mess we are in is mostly Brown's doing.
Therefore he should stay, clear it up as best that he can.........in time for the Conservatives to take over.
Once Labour are out we won't be burdened with them again for at least 20 years!
Anne Kent, Dorset,
Think of the turn-over of Nu Labour ministers being exposed and forced out of office. An interventionist foreign policy that sends our threadbare soldiers to war. Mass Immigration, Lisbon and the EU; Truancy, PC, H&S, Gatso's, Lies and Spin, the NHS computer! The billions of our money squandered.
Gordon Holmes, Birmingham, GB
Gordon Brown: dead man walking. The problem is - he is taking the rest of us in the country down with him.
Tom Jackson, London, UK
You better hope that the Tories don't get in as they will relax regulation so the city cowboys get even more power. They will make it easier for companies to do whatever they want so jobs will go elsewhere and then just to rub it in they will cut public services so don't get ill...
bob taylor, castelnau, France
When a party thinks that the the electorate are all wrong and it is right then not only has it run out of ideas it has completely lost all respect among the public. This is when a democratic party can start to feel like a dictatorship. Labour have lost touch with most of the British people.
Rob, London, UK
Spot on. I sum up my position in my being fed up with lies, deceit and manipulation. And if you're doing your self assessment return at the moment look back through your records to show the creeping increase in taxation.
Jason, Winchester, UK
My question is; will a democracy ever take the hard route and difficult decisions? If not then even the Conservatives will not solve the problem of too much money being spent and not enough made. To promise more is easy and that is what Brown has done. To do the opposite impossible for both.
Roger Corfield, Arusha, Tanzania
Have any current politicians had proper jobs away from the incestuous world of the media and politics?
What do they really know about how working people in all walks view them , their spin or their policies? Focus groups?!!
Its time that having real job experience was a prerequisite for office.
Bob, Essex, England
Two of the the three failings are already playing out with KRudd (new Labor downunder). They truly believe there is a political solution to everything. People are starting to realise the slick over-packaging and spin. Finally, they are going to bail out fail public services.
Rudderless, Spin City, Australia
Tim, Cambridge, UK. You are absolutely correct but you could have added nuclear energy supply (sold to EDF ie French Govt) and nuclear engineering capacity plus where has UK PLC manufacturing base gone in the last 11 years.
M. Cawdery, Portadown, Co. UK, EU Courtesy Brown
It is pure arrogance to believe the demise of Labour is down to the economy. Why they believe Hetrophobia is acceptable, why they believe discriminating against men, discriminating against white people and thus discriminating against the children of white people or men is acceptable I don't know.
Nick, London, England
df ain't wrong. you could blame spin, sleaze, incompetence, broken promises, overlegislation and more spin. or iraq. question is how anyone though gb prudent after gold, pensions, stealth tax, borrowing - all money wasted (the real problem). the economist never did. shame the epsilons get a vote.
jem, london, uk
easy to see how nulabour lost its gloss, but also easy to see that they were helped by the tories being unelectable. sadly, they still are but are just staying quiet. getting rid of labour won't be enough. we badly need a proper alternative, not a long-overdue protest vote.
jem, london, uk
"until they could see that at last we had got their message."
Labour are in the "Our message is not getting through" period (see 1993-97). They have 3-7 years before they start listening to us. Then they have to wait until we still start listening to them again.
ROFL
Peter Dunford, Blandford, UK
How can over exhuberance in house prices, over easy credit, the Northern Rock debacle etc; work to the good of the people?
General or specific, these issues come under the heading of incompetence.
The wheel of spin has come off, and the normal service of disbelief and cynicism resumes.
Terence Park, Burnley,
As a Labour supporter JGB and his Nu-Labour mission is finished. They are all in denial, only a change of leader and ministers plus policies will save us. Nu-labour is dead, get over it and move on.
James , Brighton, England
I agree with David Downs , if we dont start to see a change of attitude from the politicians towards the majority of the British public and listen to what WE have to say the i believe our frustration will boil over into civel war. Enough is enough , listen or face the conseqences.
charlie-k, manchester, uk
It is the resentment of the we know best attitude that is at the basis of the rejection of Labour, and Gordon Brown as the arch no-it-all in particular. I am a life long Labour Supporter and will not be unhappy to see them ejected and replaced by an attitude of freedom for the citizen.
James, Watford, UK
It is just plain wrong to say that Labour hasn't reformed the public sector. Thus this article makes little sense.
Tony B, Uckfield, UK
Vintage Brown, he is off to save the world from poverty, greed & corruption, having already bankrupted the UK. No doubt his campaign, to be next president of the world bank, will be funded by more debt & taxation, plundering those who have worked & saved.
John Barkham, Burton-upon-Trent, UK
A political party accepting its own follies is no solution. We have to change the system that allows them to do as all political party's have done over the past 50 years. We have to change our parliamentary system of governance.
Left unchecked, I see nothing short of civil war upon our streets.
David Downes, Chester, UK
Spot on. The first columnist to get it right.
Pinkie, London, United Kingdom
Politics is a game of ping pong; after several years in power the government gets pinged out since all politicians pong in the end.
John Lewis, London, UK
Here's a few from the nanny state:
- Depriving self defense by banning guns, knives, etc = increase in crime
- 42 day detention bill
- Intrusive and useless: street cameras
- Police harassing citizens for petty offences and fail to be seen as part of the community
- Councils passing petty laws
gishere, phoenix, usa
This is blatantly obvious to everyone but Labour, 'oh it's this'... 'oh it's that'......no its you and your self-righteous, patronising interference, totally devoid of the wants and needs of British citizens.
Josh, Manchester, England
I think Daniel is wrong: If the population feels well off they'll put up with a lot: Tony Blair lying about womd, speed cameras, immigration (a hard working bunch mainly) etc - so, it is the economy stupid. Also, no-one trusted the Cons to reform the NHS - still don't I'm sure.
Cirep G Nol, London,
As usual, the writer talks about Britain as if it is unitary! There is a Scotland-England divide opening up in the politics of the UK. Reasons for the demise of Labour in Scotland are different from those in England. Labour have already been defeated in Scotland - locally and nationally!
John Edgar, CUPAR, Scotland
It was bizarre hearing GB talk about "spivs" and the "off balance sheet tricks" that have lead to the financial mess. GB is therefore one of the "spivs" having increased spending though PFI schemes which do not appear on government spending statistics. Talk about dodgy!
Mike Daly, Maidenhead, Berkshire
Folks
Struck by the bickering in these comments, just a thought, why attack Colin Cumner? maybe he was born in Australia, personally I wish New Labour had been or if not could be transported there tomorrow ! However I dare say that they would be promptly returned.
Bill
Bill, Kingsbury, Warks
Gee. What an informative article. So groundbreaking, in its' revelation that "Labour doesn't trust the people". Where ya been? We've got them over here. They're called Liberals. And they're smarter than everyone. And they CAN'T be BLAMED for ANYTHING. Becuase they're smart. Just ask them.
Timothy L. Pennell, Middlebury, U.S.
Why why why is Gordon touted as a great manager of our economy and a "great mind" when he sold more than half our nation's gold at bottom of the market prices?
Voters' apathy towards Labour is put down to "the economy" when it's really about bureauracy, the EU, ID cards, Gurkhas and high taxes.
Sir Christophe, London, UK
Colin Cumner - I gather you're one of those men in the street, "rankled" by immigration eh? So rankled, you emigrated to Australia. No small irony there. I only hope you contribute to Australia (my home), the way I see so many hardworking immigrants contribute to the UK...
SIck of immigrant bashing, London (for now),
I am struck by the number of times the word "immigration" appears in this blog. New Labour and Brown have committed many crimes against the English, but mass immigration is the most unforgivable of them!
Richard Marriott, Kidderminster, England
You are absolutely right that GB and co can't accept that the voters are right. What they cannot do is say "Actually everything we did for the last 12 years was a bit if a con-trick" because then the game really is up - if they don't believe their lies, why would we? Still at least their not Tories
Peekon, Salford, UK
Austin T - Yes is does matter that AD has a law degree. As an accountant I am in no way qualified to give anyone legal advice. In the same way AD & GB are not qualified to control an annual budget of £500 billion. Neither of them have the financial acumen to be in charge of the stationery cupboard.
Harry, Nottingham,
Never been so sorry for a country I've lived in for nigh on 50 years and still feel abundant gratitude to for sacrificing so much to keep the World free, especially during the last century. Irony now is the UK itself no longer feels free. No wonder 25% (and counting) of UK pensions are taken abroad
Nick , Athens,
It is the economy, stupid. The British public could not care a less who governs as long as they have free money in their pockets. But events are now way beyond the capabilities of nation states. The electorate are grasping at straws if they imagine a change of government will improve our sorry lot.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
David Cameron should take heart, but not for granted that Labour will not learn this lesson before the next general election. It has got to experience apocalypse before even standing a chance of emerging from its state of denial. In the meantime David should not show them how to cut the Gordian knot
Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK
Good article, but probably more sympathetc to nulabour than I would be having suffered their knee-jerk policies and fundamental mistake after mistake for over 11 years.
I can only assume that the Tories know that they need to time their assault right and are sitting quietly, waiting.
Bill, Knaresborough,
Spot on. If Gordon Brown really believes what he was saying in an interview on this morning's Today programme then there is no hope for him or his party: a self-delusional monologue from a human speak-your-weight machine unable to grasp why he and New Labour are held in such contempt.
IAN GIRVAN, BATH, ENGLAND
There is only one thing that will improve Labour's fortunes, a Cameron government. A government which will in a very short time, split between the Wets and Drys. Cameron on one side Redwood on the other.
Which side will you be on Daniel?
david, exeter, uk
I think Labour's greatest crime is to entrench in our institutions and in education a loathing for our Western culture, steeped in politically correct nonsense, all the while trying to appease an ideology that actually wishes to destroy us. Time for change. Labour MP's - dust off your CV's!!
A.N, London , UK
I concur with what you have wrote. And to add, this Government has been the most divisive I have ever known. There has been a programme on TV where people are moving to different areas to receive life saving drugs free. Where a village what's to be in Wales, so that they have subscripitions free.
A Walton, Leicester, England
UK does not need parties. Instead idealists who are dogma free, politics free, vocational, totally honest, hard working, meritocratic, patriotic, tough, sensible, in touch.
Not marginal change. New start. New animal in parliament.
If MPs managed Man U they would be non league,
bankrupt.
Leigh Vernier, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Trevor, Ipswich, UK,
Does it really matter that AD has a degree in Law? This and the Solicitors' Exams were much more rigourous than most arts or even science qualifications before the Law Society de intensified them! He probably knows more Law and Accountancy than you.
Austin Tassletine, South West , UK
They would never get my vote unless 'equality' really means 'equality' (men's rights & West Lothian question) and 'promises' mean 'promises' (EU treaty referendum)!!!
PK, London,
The beginning of the end for New Labour came on the day it took power. New Labour is a publicity mechanism, not a mechanism of government. We have seen a nice experiment to find out how long it takes for what goes around to come around. It takes about 10 years for chickens to come home to roost.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
"We are not getting our message across" bleat Labour's apparatchiks one after another when interviewed.
I disagree, I think their message is coming across all too clearly - and we don't like it!
Let's face it, most of them are either (former) communists or Lenin's useful idiots.
Michael, Romsey,
New Labour one poorly thought through knee jerk reaction policy after another, Selling off our gold reserves, GP contracts, tax on pension dividends, NHS dentists, unrestricted immigration, Iraq, tax credits, free access to swimming pools (that no council can actually supply) etc etc etc.
Tim, Cambridge, UK
Daniel, socialists have never got it, that is the understanding of human nature or how humans are.
wayne, huntingdon, cambridgeshire
As usual Finklestein is so convoluted he ends up tied up in a knot. In the end it does not assist the opposition parties to present an attractive alternative programme. I am far from convinced that the ktchen table provided the eureka moment.
Dr j Findlater, Carnforth,
They are useless - what else can one say?
Frederick, London, UK
The polls showed Labour down by 20% before the financial problems of the past 2 weeks so its not just the economy. It is the lies & broken promises (particularly Lisbon Con), the greed, nagging, civil liberties, immigration, tax/spend/waste; general incompetence (data); Muslim appeasement/Sharia etc
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Go to a war on a lie, but don't provide the resources.
Boast about increased spending in "real terms" but don't compare the number of warships, planes, tanks, and military personnel to the numbers when they came into power
Lies, damned lies, and New Labour. Vote them out.
Gordon, Glasgow, UK
People vote for a change of government when a large enough proportion realise that the party in charge doesn't really care about them. Eventually the same fate awaits the new governing party and the cycle repeats itself.
Tom, Crieff,
Well what do you expect ?
He has a degree in HISTORY for God's sake !
Chancellor of 10 years and PM for 1, with the splendidly irrelevant qualification in ... History !
Now we've got a Chancellor with a degree in Law.
No wonder we're up the creek. We've got bricklayers doing neuro-surgery!
Trevor, Ipswich, UK
There are numerous reasons why intelligent people, those who gave Labour a chance, have now realised their folly and turned against them. For instance, uncontrolled immigration, Jowell, Hain, Vaz, cash for peerages, pensions, Balls, lies and deceit, open contempt for our heritage and traditions.
Callan, Liverpool, England
The problem is that government ministers are more concerned about keeping their jobs than the health of the country. Every "initiative" they have introduced costing millions in public money has failed miserably, crime is escalating, NHS crumbling, housing market collapsing. Cheers Labour!
Shirley, Pontivy, France
Blair was the modern Saruman from the Lord of the Rings... a VERY convincing speaker, so even where New Labour wasn't much different to Old labour, he made it sound like it was. Brown does not have that skill. Furthermore, forget Left and Right, Brown has been shown to have poor judgement too often.
Arni, Port Vila, Vanuatu
I'm most concerned about the billions of pounds tied up in PFI schemes to which GB has committed us. They don't yet appear on any balance sheet, and are just as toxic as those mortgage loans the banks took on.
How dare he stand in conference today and boast how he is successfully running the county
Ciaran Byrne, Cambridge, England
Labour don't like Great Britain. They don't like English people, our culture, our history, anything about us - and every path they tread is based on this truth (forced political correctness, unlimited mass immigration, devolution, refusal of a referendum etc etc etc)
Steve Jacks, London,
Daniel it sounds like your prophecies were sound!!
However I think that polling data from the past year shows that the swing against Brown has been as much about individual gaffes than some widespread realisation of Labour's vices.
Events may rescue Brown I suspect. Events, dear boy, events!
James Herrmann, London, UK
Good article. Sums up the reasons for Labour's decline in popularity very succintly. One other aspect of their rule that rankles the 'man in the street' is the Government's apparent inability to manage the immigration situation with any degree of success. Tory politicians should take note!
Colin Cumner, Adelaide, South Australia
It's simpler than you are making out.
"New" Labour have turned out to be just like the "Old" Labour: Tax and spend until the money runs out.
This lot have gone further and wrecked the UK: "free for all" immigration, crime, etc.
Voters have finally woken up to this, that's all.
Jon Leigh, Southern, France
Gordon Brown's initial popularity was built on prudence, which meant following Tory spending plans. The voters are not fooled, selling off our gold cheap and that monster the Working Families Tax Credit, are the products of a mind with a quite staggerring economic illiteracy. He has no clothes.
David Raynes , Radstock, Somerset