Anne Ashworth
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Failure to complete. No, it's not just another syndrome devised to describe the condition of those who cannot make the final commitment in a relationship, but the next expected development in the buy-to-let sector - where over-commitment of the financial rather than emotional variety is the problem.
On Monday, after the nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley, which was, not so long ago, the major lender to amateur landlords, the death of buy-to-let was widely pronounced. This is clearly not the case: many investors in rental properties are not struggling, as some have no borrowings whatsoever. The arrears and repossessions figures illustrate this, despite what some overwrought commentators may claim.
However, tricky times do lie ahead for those already cash-strapped buy-to-let investors approaching the end of cheap fixed-rate loan deals. The further deterioration of trust between bankers (currently a commitment-phobic group for whom relationship counselling might be a good idea) has resulted in yet another decrease in available offers. This worsening of the home-loan drought will have a particularly severe impact on those individuals who had been planning to become buy-to-let investors, the people who 18 months ago paid deposits of 5 per cent or more on flats then under construction who may now fail to complete on the finished dwellings.
Back in the boom days, these would-be landlords calculated they would easily be granted 80 per cent plus loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages and that rent could cover their repayments. Now they would be lucky to be given a 70 per cent offer - which would be based on a reduced value for the property. Meanwhile rents are also declining.
Struggling housebuilders are unlikely to sympathise with such customers who will almost certainly lose their deposits if they cannot afford to complete. This may not be the end of their pain, as they could be sued by the housebuilder for the possibly substantial difference between the original sale price and the amount raised from its swift disposal. The possibility that court action could be the penalty for failure to complete may encourage some of these conflicted would-be landlords to scrape together the cash to proceed. They should brace themselves for the tough competition in the market, where an oversupply of properties in some areas is meaning more voids (periods without tenants). When tenants go hunting for their perfect apartment match, looks count now more than ever. For the new rules in this dating game.
Quality sells quantity
What's not selling now? The answer includes: blighted properties, anything afflicted by airline noise, or close to landfill sites, pylons or railway lines and new-build houses in the Home Counties, formerly favoured by City bankers. This list, compiled by Savills, the estate agents, also highlights gloomy basement flats, unpopular among purchasers who are already miserable enough thanks to the crisis caused by the bankers' bonus-boosting excesses.
What's selling now is harder to categorise, although Anne Currell, of Currellamp, a North London agent, sums up the typical buyer: “He/she works in safe-ish sectors such as the law and medicine, has a 20 per cent deposit and has been either waiting to get on to the ladder or is trading up. He/she also knows the place to approach for a mortgage now is a bank with which you already have a relationship, as a saver, say.”
There has, as yet, been no research into the jobs held by the people who are buying apartments at One Osnaburgh Street, a 20-storey block, close to the peace of Regent's Park, the buzz of Bloomsbury and the urban grit of King's Cross. But it seems that this location rocks, as only 12 apartments in the block remain for sale; buyers have exchanged on 40 and another 10 are reserved. Bricks and Mortar first reported on the project when marketing began just three months ago.
The apartments, which range in price from £335,000 to £5 million, will certainly be high-end. But the sales suggest that quality names provide the reassurance at the moment: Terry Farrell is the architect of the curvilinear block, due to be finished in Juneamp, and British Land its developer. Proximity to transport is another plus. In a downturn it pays to be punctual at the office - even if you are the boss.
Our homes are priceless
Nationwide's latest research shows that the average house price is 12.4 per cent lower than a year ago. At that time, the bank base rate was 5.75 per cent; today it stands at 5 per cent, but could be cut next week. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, notes that it could fall to as low as 3.5 per cent by the end of 2009. Not so long ago, this would have produced lower mortgage rates, but the old certainties have disappeared - for the time being at least. One thing is sure, though. All these gloomy numbers do not seem to lessen anyone's affection for the place they call home.
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A few years back a chap used to telephone me explaining that if I followed his company's advice I could have a £1m property porfolio with no money down. Does anyone know his whereabouts ? I was looking forward to leaving my day job.
Paul, Tonbridge,
House prices will be toast. Soon, everyone will be able to buy a house, so no need to rent anymore.
And those that do rent will enjoy reduced rents. If houses drop 50% plus, and they will, rents are going down as well.
I think the BTL future is bleak, and glad I sold up last year.
Np, England, UK
It's not enough that these BTL "people farmers" lose everything. They should also be paraded down the high streets of the land every afternoon to be jeered and scolded for their greedy reckless ambition has blighted our economy and worse, our society.
john P-T, reigate,
"Just as sure as day follows night, so the sun will shine brightly again on the property sector"
This may be longer than you think, last crash it took 10 years to get pre crash prices. This time it could be longer due the size of the bubble, banks being crucified, over speculation, recession etc
joe , derby,
Still Dusk, and it's going to be a very long night!
David, Cornwall, UK
There is a bright side to all of this. You can now go for after work drinks without the risk of people boring you to death about their property portfolio.
Alex, Reading,
I am not so sure that property will carry on rising after bottoming out. I think we could well be into a long term downtrend. I just cannot see prices rising above peak for a long long time.
Denzil, Coventry, UK
Mortgages will become even harder to get and expensive.There are 1000's of new flats/houses lying empty, where is the shortage?Don't see hoards of people living on the streets and there is more migration than immigration.No, the market has a long way to fall and for a lot longer this time.
Simon, Devon,
"Just as sure as day follows night, so the sun will shine brightly again on the property sector"
Undoutedly. However, it is still dusk.
Matthew, Birmingham,
Just as sure as day follows night, so the sun will shine brightly again on the property sector - especially since builders have stopped building. Prices will go up again as soon as the mortgage conditions ease, and shortage will return.
Mac, UK, UK
I'd agree with Andrew Holden. If you have made a smart buy and can hold onto your investment for the long term, then you have an asset (which will eventually appreciate and which people need) and a regular income. I have a pension too but a this rate it'll be wortless in 25 years when i retire!
phil, harrogate,
Buy to let.
Let them buy.
Bye bye buy to let.
By and by It'll bleed those landlords dry.
Oh why oh why buy
when mortgage money supplies are running dry.
Pay out rent. You'll make no dent
to any great extent in their repaying what they were lent.
Let them buy, you rent.
Robert G, stockton-on-Tees, cleveland
BTL probably has a better future than many other investments at present. It's not the time to panic and sell up - and in fact the rental sector will probably stay healthy whilst there is a mortgage famine. No fast bucks ANYWHERE, of course!
andrew holden, oxford, uk
Remember people, that in a recession renters default on rent just as mortgage holders default on payments. BTLer's seem to imply that their rental income is a given. I wonder whether they have accounted for having to pay an extra mortgage each month. One rotten apple will spoil the barrel.
Edward, London,
I would agree that it probably is the death of the current clutch of "lie to bet" investors.
rob, Ipswich,
With bounding property prices and stagnant rents, it has been bonkers to enter the buy-to-let market for several years now. As property prices fall, it may become less bonkers, for the buyer and the lender. And Bill from London, the rent keeps coming in the Lloyds shares in my pension are down 50%
David Moss, London, UK
The end of the buy to let amateur is here, huge portfolios of buy to let properties with interest only mortgages. Essentially the poor mans' Hedge Fund.
Jon, London,
It's not the death of buy-to-let, but it's the end of individuals thinking they can derive a pension from property.
Bill, London,