Commentators who were previously engaged in a contest to get all of the misery right in their forecasts for the housing market have now switched to a race to point to the time when recovery will begin.

This switch of emphasis may itself be a significant moment, not least for those investors and first-time buyers keen to buy before they see the light at the end of the tunnel, a huge gamble but one that could bring the largest gains.

Our map - not just an exercise in pleasing pastels, although we hope you like the colours - which sets out the estimates of Yolande Barnes, Savills' head of residential research. Earlier this year, she forecast that, if the credit crunch sticks around, prices could fall by 25 per cent by the end of 2009. The timing of the turnaround will vary from region to region, however. Its beginning is set to coincide with the next Olympics in 2012, so don't hold your breath.

By 2012, she suggests that prices in the South East and Scotland should once more be at their 2007 level, thanks to a shortage of homes and local purchasing power.

They should be followed a year later by the East of England, the East Midlands and the South West. The recovery may not come in the West Midlands until 2014 and is likely to be delayed until 2015 in Wales, Yorkshire and Humberside and the North West. Northern Ireland and the North East may have to wait until 2016.

By 2020, she reckons that the market will be prospering, but, again, locations face diverging fortunes. In the South East (which is under-supplied with homes) prices could be 79 per cent higher than today. But the North East, where new homebuilding targets have been met, the increase may be just 19 per cent.

This all supposes that it is the credit crunch that has thwarted the desire of buyers to pursue dream homes, not any permanent disaffection with property. This is probably a reliable assessment of the national mood, which is currently blue but unlikely to be permanently that way.

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