Rosie Millard
Get 20% off your bill at Pizza Express
When I bought two off-plan, new-build buy-to-let flats in the City of London, I remember swinging my 11-stone girth into a car (I was eight months pregnant) and saying to Mr Millard: “These flats are going to be great. Unless, of course, the entire City goes bust.” How we laughed. Well, yesterday that baby celebrated his ninth birthday - and last week the City went bust.
Having written a column for Home about the buy-to-let phenomenon for six years, and remained an enthusiastic landlady throughout, I will not be joining the raucous ranks of those jumping up and down on its “grave”. Do I regret being so upbeat about it? Come off it. It has been one of the most extraordinary moments in personal finance, allowing the likes of you and me to take control of our investments, rather than hand them to some distant broker or flaky pension scheme.
Anyway, I don’t believe the headlines that have appeared in the wake of the collapse of Bradford & Bingley, proclaiming buy to let dead. Far from it. In my experience, the rental market is rather healthy at the moment. My flats are full and the tenants are paying rents about 20% higher than they were nine years ago. With fewer people willing to sell, more people who can’t or won’t buy are renting instead. This means a shortage of decent rental properties, which should support rents (though there are suggestions that oversupply in some places is pushing them down). Despite the credit crunch, I have just managed to remortgage with a loan only 0.5% more expensive than the previous one.
Nevertheless, one of my tenants works for Lehman Brothers. Well, he did until a fortnight ago. Will he still be my tenant next week? Who knows? There may be many more unemployed men in suits over the weeks to come, which means that if my tenant leaves, he might be hard to replace. My new mortgage is good, but it is a tracker, not a fix. If interest rates suddenly soar, so will my monthly bill. The prospect of “no tenant plus costly mortgage” is not a happy one, but it could happen.
It is a thought that might be visiting the minds of many landladies over the coming weeks, which may, of course, cause a rush on sales. That, in turn, would mean a tumble in capital values. All of which would make remortgaging difficult, especially for those whose loans are close to the potential price of their property.
Yet I refuse to get worried. The danger zone might have widened, but in reality only for those who are vulnerable on several fronts. If you aren’t, I maintain that all will be well. First, there is the issue of “loan to value” – how much you owe the bank relative to how much your house is worth. Landlords are in the main rather cautious about borrowing: most of those who responded to a recent survey conducted by the Association of Residential Letting Agents (Arla) said they were “geared” between 51% and 75%. In other words, a 10%-20% fall in capital values, while unwelcome, wouldn’t be sufficient to send us into negative equity.
Then there’s the issue of timing. I once bought a flat, owned it for three months, then sold it on for a profit. What a lark. You can’t do that now. You have to be prepared to put your tenants in, arrange a mortgage that can be covered by the rent, then go off and do something else for a decade or two.
If you bought into the market for a quick fix, you’ll have to reorganise your game plan. Ditto if you bought in a ropey part of town where your flat is one of thousands of new-builds. If not, then keep going. If you have a nice flat, marketed professionally and mortgaged reasonably, in a well-connected, buoyant location with a large and varied local workforce, then once you have tenants in and your mortgage covered, capital values can do what they like. You won’t be thinking about selling for at least 10 years, by which time the market will have recovered. How do I know? Well, unless we suddenly veer towards communism or a barter system, it’s probable that, in a decade or so, good old capitalism will be back with a vengeance, and so will your investment. Those tenants have to live somewhere.
After all, the buy-to-let market more or less directly replaced the corporate rental market: the number of tenants out there remained reasonably stable, and there is no good reason for them all to vanish. This is not America, with giant spaces and few building restrictions. This is tightly controlled Britain, where there is still an acute housing shortage – one that’s likely to become even more acute in the next few years, as many developers have reacted to the credit crunch by slowing or freezing their projects.
Harry Johnston, a professional landlord with 40 flats in Manchester, is sitting tight for as long as it takes. I would say he is typical. “I’ll go in when the market is on the way up, not when prices are falling,” he says. He points out that he has no reason to sell up – and is rich enough to be able to freeze his rents, so his tenants needn’t panic or move out. Arla says that more than 75% of the 500 landlords questioned this summer will not sell because of falling prices. How long will they keep their portfolios? An average of 16 years, apparently.
The falling market also means there are bargains out there. It may seem distasteful, but it’s true. I’m not saying I’m rushing out with my credit card, but some are. Ooh, those cheeky landlords. Philip Stewardson, who, with his brother Mark, owns 84 residential properties across the West Midlands and Staffordshire, is taking advantage of the crisis. “We are continuing to invest,” he says. “Over the past three months, we have picked up about 10 properties, buying at 30%-40% below what was market value 12 months ago. We are extremely careful about what we buy, though. We always choose places that need modernisation and always look for hidden value – where we can increase the size or change the format somehow, say converting from a house to flats.”
That said, he and Johnston are both landlording pros, and Stewardson acknowledges that this is probably not the time for people to start a buy-to-let hobby. Nor will newbies be welcomed into the market by crippled banks that won’t countenance a mortgage unless you have a bombproof income. “It’s practically impossible for people to enter the buy-to-let market unless they can put down huge deposits,” Stewardson says. “The people I know who are doing all right have five properties or more, and are taking advantage of any opportunities.”
The reality, it’s business as usual – only with slightly whitened knuckles. For the next 16 years.
Additional reporting by Emma Wells
How it all adds up
Buy-to-let borrowers tend to put down larger deposits than owner-occupiers – an average of 29% rather than 21%, according to the Association of Residential Letting Agents . One in 10 comes up with more than 50%.
Gross investment yields on buy-to-let are back to 7%-8%, after hitting a low of 3.5% last year, says Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank.
Just 1.1% of all buy-to-let loans are more than three months in arrears, against 1.33% in the broader market, the latest figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders reveal.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Explore your passion for food with the delights of Thai, Indian & Chinese cooking
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£100k
The National Skills Academy for Social Care
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
£75k - £85k
Confidential
London
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
$3.5 million
Also avaliable for rent
Times Online Property Search will help you find it
Amazing Far East Offers - Visit Hong Kong
from £499pp
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Rosie you are incorrectly quoting Liam Bailey. For yields to increase from 3.5% to 7% to 8% property values would have needed to have halved. The fact that BTL intend to hang on in there is no sign of the merits of such actions. I am surveyor working in the sector and i see nothing but trouble ahead
Mark Wilson, London,
Mary it s not a question of being smug. I made mistakes and lost money at first, but have since made a reasonable return. Its not smug getting off your back side and providing for yourself and not relying on the state I did all the renovation, letting and look after the tennants myself.
Simon, LONDON,
If the coming recession does something to dent the awful smugness of middle England, as it manifests itself here, our country will be the richer
Mary, London,
I agree with rosie I got into BTL as I was fed up with being ripped off by pension providers. Having researched it first i havent looked backed.Btl investors are an important part of the property rental market.
Simon, London,
David Boycott. No one has a right to own a home and even less right to own several. I will vote for the first party to promise (a) to re-introduce rent controls; (b) increase security of tenure so that tenants are virtually unevictable; (c) remove unfair tax breaks enjoyed by BTL investors.
Clive, Chichester, UK
"It has been one of the most extraordinary moments in personal finance, allowing the likes of you and me to take control of our investments"
I rather think SIPPs have made a bigger contribution on that point. BTL has been a bubble in which naive individuals have believed they can make a fortune by putting all their money (plus borrowed money) into a single asset. The likes of you, not all others, have been mugged by a fantasy. If you've got away with it, then you're lucky. Others have not been
David, Guildford,
rosie millard lol lol lol. Rosie believes people talked down the housing market. , I thought the times was a serious paper, but yet its writers are all vested interest. You see rosie your middle class is no longer, it s us or them , ie usa 1% owns over 90%. Rosie you are part of the 99%.
jim, norwich, england
"allowing the likes of you and me to take control of our investments"
I'm guessing by "you & me" you mean other affluent, middle class property owners, not the generation of young people & young families who will probably never own a home because they've all been stockpiled by BTL investors.
Paul Topham, london, United Kingdom
A rent increase of 20% in nine years means an average annual increase (CAGR) of just 2%. Inflation today is more than double that level, so it is quite clear that your investment is destroying value.
David Boycott, London,
While BTL investment is going to be a disaster for many of its proponents, please spare us the rubbush about depriving first time buyers of a home. No one has a right to own a house. There is nothing wrong with renting. Indeed, in the past decade, renting has been cheaper than paying a mortgage.
David Boycott, London,
How on earth can yields have bounced back to 7-8% if they were 3.5% last year? Have rents doubled? No. Have house prices halved? Not yet. That sounds like one of those bogus facts dreamed up by people with an agenda or an interest. Better put the money in the bank at 7% and wait.
Jonathan, London,
spot on!
john bruce whitelaw, gold coast, ausstralia
Your rent has gone up by 20% in 9 years. That's less than inflation, so where are the signs of housing shortage? In that time house prices in London have increased by 146%, so expect them to fall to around 20% above 1999 prices.
Jonathan Bryce, Reading, Berkshire
All those who say I am safe I bought years ago, look out!!
I trade the Forex. It has taught me to take profits when the market turns. I sold the USDollar when it turned tail. Look at that sucker now.
There is a time to buy and a time to sell SIMPLE.
Denzil, Coventry, UK
the reverse logic amazes me..
BTL will do well because the developers have stopped developing? WHY have they stopped developing, they could have places ready in 2 months to rent/sell IF THERE WAS A MARKET FOR THEM!
Susan, gillingham, UK
No amount of wishful thinking can change the fact that "landladies" are in a dire situation. Those with substantial equity in their properties are seeing it eroded at the fastest rate since the Great Depression. Those without substantial equity will not be able to remortgage on favourable terms.
Nick James, London, England
More properties on the rental maket means cheaper rents. House prices in meltdown means cheaper rents.
50% plus drop in prices means neg equity for a lot of BTL. And tanked house prices means that more people can buy, so far fewer tenants. BTL is slowly dying.
Np, England, UK
what an an awful selfish uncaring woman. spare a thought for the first time buyers priced out by this leech if you can. I hope it all goes wrong for the financial succubus but even if it it doesnt she'll have to think about her life on her death bed and it wont be good.
Dominic ~, Sheffield,
Nobody is saying bye-bye to BTL properties bought several years ago. The problem is with buying BTL properties today. You cannot get a decent mortgage, the yields are low, and the house price market is falling. It is irresponsible to try to disguise these rather blatant problems with BTL.
Bill, Madrid,