Jenny Hjul
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If any good can come out of the misery of collapsing banks, frozen assets, desperate savers and recession-bound economies, it is this: Scottish nationalism as a credible ideology is dead.
It has happened very fast, and there will be many nationalists still in denial over the end of their dreams, but who could honestly say now that separatism is in Scotland’s best interests?
Even Alex Salmond has to concede that his Scottish banking friends — the ones who helped him get elected just 17 months ago — have been bailed out by Britain, with RBS and HBOS about to be part-nationalised to the tune of £25 billion.
Where does it leave his economic blueprint for independence when even the financial sector, the core of the Scottish economy, cannot survive without the UK Treasury to prop it up?
It isn’t only die-hard Unionists who point out that Scotland would be negotiating its rescue package with a foreign Bank of England if it weren’t for the Union and that the Scottish finance minister would be seeking reassurances for Scottish deposits from a foreign power.
Suddenly, the SNP’s economic case doesn’t have a leg to stand on. The great fallback — that a go-it-alone Scotland would get by on North Sea oil reserves — has long been derided as a silly notion, given the volatility of oil prices. And Salmond’s ploy to set up a Norwegian-style multi-billion-pound oil fund was strangled at birth — by the Norwegians, in fact, who said Scotland couldn’t afford to copy them.
The first minister has tried to convince voters that his vision for a breakaway nation was based on sound economic principles. Scotland, with indestructible Edinburgh as its driving force, would bloom under his business-friendly policies, and the economy would grow like that of one of his favourite small-country models — Ireland, say, or Norway . . . or Iceland.
How deluded this now looks. The growth rate in Ireland, the first Eurozone country to go into recession, dropped to minus 1.3% in the first quarter of 2008; Norway has had to beg the US Federal Reserve for a $5 billion (£2.9 billion) lifeline; Iceland has gone bust. Seven Scottish councils are among the UK investors unable to access an estimated £20 billion in Iceland’s banks and Gordon Brown has resorted to anti-terrorist measures to freeze Icelandic assets in Britain.
Some role model! How will Scottish taxpayers feel about the efficiency of small countries when they find out their council taxes have disappeared into Reykjavik’s black hole and their local services are being cut to recoup the losses?
At least the past week has highlighted (before it was too late) the folly in assuming that a country the size of Iceland or Scotland would perform better in a downturn than a nation as big as Britain, the world’s fifth-largest economy.
It would be interesting to ask Salmond now if he believes small is beautiful but then again, this is probably not a good time. Perhaps the most surprising aspect, from a Scottish perspective, of the recent turmoil in the markets is how the SNP leader has been personally exposed.
For a former RBS economist, he has shown a poor grasp of the facts, miscalling the HBOS implosion by blaming spivs and short-sellers while all the experts identified the bank and its high-risk strategies as the real culprit.
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I have lived in Yorkshire over 30years and note that it has a similar population to Scotland, shares an antipathy for all things South of Watford Gap BUT has a larger GDP than Scotland. In spite of this it prefers to be part of a larger British Union particularly in these dangerous economic times.
Chris, Ripon, North Yorkshire
Usual Unionist drivel from a "British" paper. Same old same old doesn't work anymore. So is the "British" economy is great shape? Watch out for the cost of this strategy in the form of higher taxes, oh but not until June 2010.
S.Beaton, St Cyrus, Scotland
It shows up the SNP's tactical error - to make independence a numbers game that has nothing to do with identity as if we're beyond all that primitive nonsense.
As it happens, the numbers are endlessly contestable. People's antipathy towards the Union as the last vestage of empire is not.
boxthejack, Insch, Scotland
If the Nats had had their wished for independence it would be Darien II - although if he asked nicely, the English would probably allow Salmond to keep his Regalities.
Jamie Isbister, Edinburgh,
I fail to see why the death of Scottish nationalism as a credible ideology can be viewed as a good thing. Like most voters South of the border, I look forward to Scotland taking responsibility for itself and meeting its own inflated public expenditure commitments.
andrew, bristol, uk
You seem to asume that Scotland would have to borrow from England ,no one seems to be asking wouldnt England be borrowing from Scotland. But when Scotland and England become independent Scotland will be part of the Euro zone what England and the rest of the UK do is anyones guess as they would be to small to manage without Scotland.
conway, Edinburgh, Scotland
You seem to asume that Scotland would have to borrow from England ,no one seems to be asking wouldnt England be borrowing from Scotland. But when Scotland and England become independent Scotland will be part of the Euro zone what England and the rest of the UK do is anyones guess as they would be to small to manage without Scotland.
conway, Edinburgh, Scotland
Forgive my scepticism but Hjul deciding that independence is over is like Gok Wan deciding you look good in the buff. The difference between Iceland and an independent Scotland is that the latter would be supported by the European Central Bank inside the Euro.
http://snptacticalvoting.blogspot.com/
Jeff, Edinburgh,
I do find this triumphalism very odd. And illogical. Essentially the argument seems to be that a country has to be of a certain size in order to be safe. Yet Scotland is bigger in terms of population than about 15 of Europes 50 or so nations, and bigger in terms of economy than about 25 of those 50 nations. Only one of those small countries is in more trouble than the UK namely Iceland whose downfall was due to its complete failure to regulate its banks. In fact, most of those small European countries are in a substantially better position than the UK.
Chris, edinburgh, scotland
Little do you know. Independence is now a nap!
Ronnie, Aberdeen
ronmacdee, Aberdeen, Scotland
Judging by the comments here and the tone of the Nats in general, they are all in denial. Still, none of them ever present a cogent argument as to how an independent scotland would come up with the billions need to bail out these 2 british banks that just happen to be based in a North British city.
Mike, Edinburgh,
Not sure this is a convincing arguement but it is however very political.
Gordon, Glasgow,
If Scotland was already independent, then Salmond as Scottish PM would have been able to play a much greater role than he is able to do now re the banks.
I think you know that you are talking nonsense-otherwise you would declare Glenrothes a Labour hold :-)
Tom Robinson, Edinburgh,
Independence = dead issue. Most of us Scots weren't that keen on it in the first place, and no the collapse of Iceland and Ireland show the dangers that small countries face when the global economy goes south - it's not going to convert anyone to the benefits of independence....
Alexander, Edinburgh,
oh jenny your surely not saying scotland is too wee or too poor.
really ive never heard that before...
independence is now the only solution for scotland
because people are now going to see it as an exit from taxes imposed by westminster
your comments shows you dont know scots at all
karin, glasgow,
We'll just see about that.
Shirley McNott, Brigadoon,